Manager: (ma) che lezione! Hi all, if our ability to understand how good we are - or unable - to do the best with a given time, is already a success for our professionalism and a great step forward for our expertise.
Bingo, unfortunately, that power is not necessarily refined with experience. One of the best demonstrations of this fact comes from a study done at the end of 1980, a test of the ability of golfers who showed in putting. The putting, after all, is a fundamental part of the game, as it represents 43 percent of the shots. Among other things, the study would detect and the percentage of two-meter putt to pocket the best golfers in the world. The study was made up of fifteen major international tournaments. At each tournament, the team chose a green field with a smooth surface and relatively flat. Then, during the four days of the race, measured every putt.
The study cataloged data on 11,060 putt. How many of them were sent to pit the best golfers in the world? The answer turned out to be little more than half: 54.8 per cent, to be exact.
interesting was the reaction of the professionals who participated in tournaments: most of them predicted that at least 70 percent of their putts would go in the hole. A famous rookie tournament, former U.S. Amateur champion and performer of great putt, he believed that the average putt to pocket more than 80 percent and considered to hold an average staff of "about 91 or 92 percent." Illusion data in hand, or just a little trick to the player to disorient opponents disclose numbers (performance) are not real. Be sure it is a fact that some prominent professionals say: "If you do not send in the hole at least 85 percent of the putts of two feet, nothing is gained." When, with concrete data have been reported as the result of the study that the actual average was 54.8 percent, stated: "Impossible, do not believe it."
The presumption always unfortunately confuses the reasonableness of the supposition.
Dunque carissimi a quanto rilevato dallo studio e magari anche da una nostra analisi più approfondita su quanto letto, possiamo affermare che si tratta di una reazione comune alla maggior parte delle persone: come abbiamo visto, tutti noi pensiamo di essere un po' migliori di quanto non siamo in realtà. Se, però, osserviamo da vicino il curriculum di molti cosiddetti professionisti, scopriamo che neanche loro sono così bravi come vorrebbero darci a intendere.
Nel caso di certe attività - specialmente quelle che riguardano la capacità di esprimere giudizi o fare previsioni - le loro prestazioni si rivelano often worse than you would have us believe. In one study, a group of psychologists and their assistants have received information from a test to diagnose brain damage. The psychologists' diagnoses were not better than those of their assistants. It is still worse in the case of the specialists on which many of us rely for economic advice: financial analysts. When the researchers examined the ability to predict the profits of companies followed by analysts, they discovered not only that their performance was painful, but even worse with the passage of time. In 1980, the analysts were wrong in 30 percent of cases, in 1985, they went wrong in 52 percent of cases, in 1990, they went wrong in 65 percent of the cases (a huge percentage).
appears at the end got a little article from a newspaper: The opinions of analysts are generally biased in one direction: about 95 percent of the time, advised investors to compare, or retain portfolio actions and almost never throw the dart, pronouncing the word "sell." In order to moderate the incurable optimists, in 2008, Merrill Lynch, the largest U.S. investment bank, began to require its analysts to assign a rating of 'supply less than the market' or 'sale' to 20 percent of titles di cui si occupano. Vedi Anderson e Bajaj (2008).
Risultati altrettanto sconcertanti sono derivati da studi che hanno messo a confronto i pronostici dei professionisti con quelli elaborati da modelli attuariali (sostanzialmente, dei computer). Sono stati svolti un centinaio di studi di questo tipo. «Gli esperti hanno fatto meglio solo in una manciata di casi», ha stabilito. Le ricerche che ha esaminato riguardavano vari settori - ammissioni al college, recidività dei criminali, diagnosi mediche. In alcuni casi, gli "esperti" si sono dimostrati più precisi dei principianti, ma raramente lo sono stati più di semplici modelli statistici. «La deprimente conclusion to be drawn from these studies is that the judgments of experts in most areas of clinical and doctors are not more accurate than those expressed by beginners behind an internship with a minimum '.
Discoveries like this should produce humility, but in reality this is not the case. A test of the ability of political scientists to predict world events revealed that "both the inexperienced experts who have proven slightly more accurate than you might expect from a hypothesis based on the case." The fundamental difference between the two groups was in their levels of modesty. "Most of the experts pensava di sapere più di quanto sapesse in realtà», ha determinato la ricerca. Anche di fronte all' evidenza dei fatti, gli esperti cercavano di «convincersi di avere sostanzialmente ragione».
Esercitiamoci, dunque per essere migliori, viste le prestazioni altalenanti di molti esperti, sembra ragionevole porsi una domanda: che cosa rende realmente esperto un esperto? Quando l'esercito americano ha posto questa domanda, ha scoperto che molti dei suoi “top gun” erano in realtà dei pensatori profondi. Come i campioni di scacchi e altri superesperti, i piloti avevano la capacità di prevedere in tempi rapidi le conseguenze di un dato evento - Could, that is, to think in depth about the problem, and do so quickly. How did they develop this ability? In large part, by making a lot of memories. Then there are the innate capacities - mental or physical - does not matter what you think in general. The intelligence tests, for example, have proven useless to explain individual differences in performance in the arts, science and the professions of a higher level. And, with the exception of 'height, there are few indisputable evidence to the special features are necessary to achieve outstanding performance in sports.
What matters is exercise. Experts are carrying a lot. Whatever the sector, it is generally understood that it takes about ten years of sustained effort to become an expert level established and authoritative. Please note not all types of exercise, however, are useful. "Practice" and "competence" are not the same thing over and over again simply to the same business, does not guarantee any improvement in its performance. The exercise, however, must aim to improve memory performance. If done correctly, prolonged, unhurried, operation generates a large set of expert knowledge - a library, if you will - in the mind of the person who is practicing. This is important because the fact of possessing a large library allows an expert to quickly recognize patterns that do not recognize other glia.
O ps!, It is now has revealed a secret, completely unexpected? "An expert is able to quickly recognize patterns that do not recognize other glia, because its jurisdiction is well-stocked library and loose." So much of what has been written shortly before:
What is important is exercise. Experts are carrying a lot.
Pier Giorgio